What counts as a response?
Only an explicit candidate-choice response with source, response provenance, deduplication, exclusion checks, and protocol review can enter the direct-response evidence lane.
Campaign methodology | WA-10 response status
WA-10 Polling Methodology and Response Status
This page explains how the Adam Arafat campaign captures explicit voter-choice responses and what the current evidence can—and cannot—support.
Current public status: The campaign’s H2 response-capture database reports 102 records in the internal sample table and 156 eligible explicit intake records as of the latest audit. These records come from a nonprobability phone-bank frame. They are not presented as a representative scientific poll, certified vote count, district-wide percentage, or win probability.
What is the sample frame?
The current lane is campaign phone-bank response capture. It is nonprobability evidence and should be read as an operational response snapshot, not as a representative survey of all WA-10 voters.
Why no topline?
Percentages, margins, vote-share claims, and win probabilities remain unpublished until provenance, quality, weighting, nonresponse, and final publishability gates pass.
Top-two primary outlook
Read the separate campaign-authored Top Two outlook. It is a projection, not a poll result.
How top two works
See the WA-10 Top-Two Primary explainer for ballot structure, advancement language, and official-result limits.
Campaign evidence rules
Social engagement, modeled scenarios, donor behavior, and viability signals remain separate context—not direct polling or secured votes.
Evidence room
Use the WA-10 Evidence Room for source-backed policy pages and the public polling change log for dated methodology updates.
Frequently asked questions
Is this a scientific poll?
No. The current response-capture lane is a nonprobability phone-bank frame.
Why are there no topline percentages?
Toplines require completed provenance, quality, weighting, and publishability review.
What changes the status?
A future update will name the sample date, direct-response count, methodology, exclusions, and uncertainty limits before publishing any topline.